Putin’s war: consequences for Europe

Part 1:  What does this mean for the European economy? – The economic forecast of the private banks (in German)

Part 2:  Implications for the strategic autonomy of the EU (in English)

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine marks a political turning point which will have a visible impact on the economy and financial markets in Europe. But it also marks a caesura in the European security order and casts a new – and glaring – light on the EU’s recent pursuit of greater strategic autonomy.

In the first part of the event, Holger Schmieding (Chief Economist, Berenberg) and Christian Ossig (Chief Executive, Association of German Banks) will unveil the association’s latest economic forecast. What do the shock of the war, the additional inflationary pressure and further supply chain bottlenecks mean for the economy in Germany and the euro area? Is there even a danger of stagflation? How should the ECB’s monetary policy respond?

In the fireside chat with Maya Atig (CEO, Fédération Bancaire Française) and Giovanni Sabatini (General Manager, Associazione Bancaria Italia) Christian Ossig will discuss the implications of developments for the strategic autonomy of the EU. How can the EU position itself more strongly in future in the face of growing global conflicts? What resources and guidelines are needed? And what role do banks have to play?

Programme

11.00          Event starts

Part 1         Economic forecast of the private banks

Economic situation and outlook

• Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist of Berenberg and Chair of the Economic and Monetary Policy Committee of the Association of German Banks

Monetary policy of the ECB and prospects for lending

• Christian Ossig, Chief Executive, Association of German Banks

11.35       Questions from online audience

• Moderated by Volker Hofmann, Head of Economics, Association of German Banks

11.50       Part 1 ends

Break (10 minutes)

Part 2      Strategic autonomy of the European Union

12.00       Fireside-chat (in English)

• Maya Atig, CEO, Fédération Bancaire Française
• Giovanni Sabatini, General Manager, Associazione Bancaria Italiana
• Christian Ossig, Chief Executive, Association of German Banks

12.35      Questions from online audience

12.50      Event ends